Global Crude Steel Production

Global crude steel production touched a new record in 2010, driven by growth in emerging regions and improving manufacturing in the developed world, although the construction sector remained gloomy.

Global production rose 15% to 1.414 billion tonnes in 2010 from 1.327 billion in 2008 and 1.229 billion in 2008, according to data released by the World Steel Association on Friday:

Global crude steel production
País		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	20101
01	China	182.249	222.413	280.486	355.790	422.660	489.899	500.488	567.842	625.000
02	Japan	107.745	110.511	112.718	112.471	116.226	120.203	118.738	87.534	109.553
03	USA	91.587	93.677	99.681	94.897	98.557	98.102	91.490	58.142	80.000
04	Russia	59.777	61.450	65.583	66.146	70.830	72.387	68.510	59.940	65.000
05	South Korea	45.390	46.310	47.521	47.820	48.455	51.517	53.488	48.598	61.000
06	Germany	45.015	44.809	46.374	44.524	47.224	48.550	45.833	32.671	45.000
07	Ukraine	34.050	36.932	38.738	38.641	40.891	42.830	37.107	29.757	33.000
08	Indian	28.814	31.779	32.626	45.780	49.450	53.080	55.050	56.608	66.200
09	Brazil	29.604	31.147	32.909	31.610	30.901	33.782	33.713	26.507	32.000
10	Italy	26.066	27.058	28.604	29.350	31.624	31.553	30.477	19.737	26.000

 “The production data is better than people could expect in the aftermath of the crisis in 2009”

said Anthony de Carvalho, administrator on the steel committee at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

“The economic stimulus programmes (undertaken by governments) indirectly helped the steel industry. But many countries are still below pre-recession levels”.

Asia and other developing countries drove the growth and reached record production levels, while output in Western economies lagged behind 2008's levels as growth remained fragile and the construction sector was hit hard, analysts said.

Production in China, the world's largest steel producer, rose 9.3 percent to 626.7 million tonnes on the previous year, but its share of global production fell to 44.3% from 46.7% in 2009.

Analysts said China's growth was strong but hampered by electricity cuts in the last part of 2010, analysts said.

“China had problems trying to meet environmental requirements”

said Peter Fish, managing director at MEPS, a steel information provider.

“But the Chinese could not grow 20% or 30% like some other countries, because in 2009, when everyone else took a dip, China didn't”.

Chinese steel production is expected to grow but at a slower rate in 2011, closer to 5% versus 7-8% growth in India, Fisher forecast.

China

As China's economy grows, the authorities are likely to turn to monetary policy to contain inflation, and this could affect steel demand, according to analysts.

“We do think that a tighter monetary policy in China will slow down steel consumption and this will start to kick in in the second half of 2011”

said Chris Houden, analyst at CRU.

Japan, the world's second-largest steel producer, enjoyed 25.2% growth in 2010 to 109.6 million tonnes versus 2009. Its exports have got a boost from growth in neighbouring economies such as China and Korea, according to De Carvalho.

EU and U.S. steel production grew rapidly but from a lower base. Production in the European Union grew by 24.6% to 172.9 million tonnes and in the United States by 38.5% to 80.6 million.

These countries are still struggling with overcapacity, analysts said.

“(Capacity) utilization is picking up from low levels, but the question is: Will producers keep production low to get price increases?”

said UBS analyst Andrew Snowdowne.

While steel production in emerging economies will continue to grow to record levels, it may take developed countries a few more years to go back to pre-crisis levels given the fragile state of their economies, analysts said.

Brazil

The production in scale is the main vulnerability of the Brazilian steel for the competition in his own market due to the competition to have stopped being local to be global. This aspect turns necessary that the economical politics and tax Brazilian is reviewed, as well as the production. For his shift no there is as choosing as priority the internal market to the detriment of the external, or the opposite; the competition is global. Alan Greenspan in his book “the Era of the Turbulence” demonstrated that very well in the USA in the decade of 1960, when the manufacturers of automobiles had to seek new sources of provisioning: 

 

“Until then, the United States didn't import a lot of steel, because the conventional wisdom suggested that the steel industries foreigners were not to the height of the American quality patterns. But, when the strike of 1959 reached his second and later third month, the manufacturers of automobiles and other great customers had to seek other sources of provisioning. And, then, they discovered that it leaves of the originating from steel Europe and of Japan it was of first category and, still for top, cheaper”.

The trader and lawyer Rinaldo Maciel de Freitas considers the Institute Steel Brazil, for the acronym IABr, a condominium of thieves and, in judge's Luiz Fernando Boller, o words that IABr - Institute Steel Brazil search is:  

 

“... to impede the free market competition, confronting the Federal Constitution, reducing the free activity exercise the all allowed, even if before the submission to the rules of the competition. The opening of the national ports for imports and exports imposes their positive and negative effects on the totality of the national reality, from the production of grains and victuals in general, until the industry of the clothing, electronic etc., not having law to guarantee for the institute and their associates, a captive, submissive and slave national market, so that here he can practice the price that better it suits him” (TJSC - Tribunal of Justice of Santa Catarina - Process nº 2010.073993-7 - Judge Luiz Fernando Boller - 06/11/2010).

Minério de Ferro - Iron Ore

Preço do Minério de Ferro

Price of the Iron Ore

O fato é que a China aparenta ter o “toque de Midas”, ou seja, tudo que toca vira ouro. O fenômeno da alta do preço do minério de ferro se deve à forte demanda dos chineses. Repete o ocorrido, principalmente entre 2003 e 2008 quando a China era o destino de praticamente toda a exportação de aços, uma vez que o país se tornara um gigantesco canteiro de obras, visando inclusive às olimpíadas de Pequim. O preço do minério de ferro à US$ 200,00 (duzentos dólares americanos) parece alguma coisa fora da realidade. No passado era recorrente o entendimento de que a partir de 2008 o país se tornaria, como se tornou, exportador líquido de aços; e em relação ao minério de ferro? O país asiático tem a maior reserva de minério bruto do mundo, no entanto, de baixíssimo teor ferrífero! O preço do minério de ferro no mercado à vista (spot) da China atingiu ontem US$ 180,80 a tonelada ante US$ 178,30 na sexta-feira confirmando uma tendência de alta do produto. Do final de dezembro, quando a cotação do minério no mercado livre chinês alcançou US$ 170,1 até ontem, houve uma alta de 6,4% do principal insumo siderúrgico. Na avaliação de analistas, nada impede o minério de chegar a US$ 200 a tonelada no 'spot' em fevereiro. Se tiver um pouco menos de oferta por parte da Vale - maior mineradora mundial da matéria-prima - decorrente de problemas de chuvas no Brasil e a demanda continuar melhorando por conta das compras antecipadas das usinas chinesas devido aos festejos do Ano Novo chinês, a tendência de alta pode se acentuar. Atualmente, a produção de aço voltou a se recuperar também na Europa. O preço do "spot" está sofrendo também a forte atuação dos traders. Para um especialista do setor, o ponto crucial, mesmo que haja especulação no mercado livre, é que oferta e demanda de minério estão apertadíssimas. Outro insumo siderúrgico, o carvão metalúrgico, vem tendo problemas de oferta por conta das inundações na Austrália. O preço do carvão chinês de alta qualidade já subiu de US$ 299 a tonelada para US$ 323. A alta chega a 6%. A oferta apertada e a firme demanda chinesa puxaram os preços de minério de ferro para o maior nível em quase nove meses. Os temores de que pesadas chuvas no Brasil possam interromper as exportações do segundo maior país fornecedor de minério de ferro, além da oferta já apertada da Índia, terceira no ranking, no momento em que fabricantes de aço da China procuram construir estoques podem levar os preços a um nível que não é visto de 2008. A queda de braço na Índia entre produtores de minério e grandes siderúrgicas ajuda a empurrar para cima ainda mais o preço 'spot' do minério. Como as siderúrgicas indianas são mais poderosas que os donos de minas de minério de ferro, a produção local fica retida no país, contraindo mais a oferta. “Nós poderemos ver preços subirem até US$ 200 no próximo mês se a interrupção continuar”, disse Troy Flannery, analista sênior de mineração do DJ Carmichael, de Perth. “Eu acredito que veremos um pouco mais de volatilidade no mercado spot por causa destas interrupções de oferta, enquanto é provável que algumas fabricantes de aço estejam tentando se antecipar ao jogo ao assegurar sua matéria-prima assim que puderem”. O clima chuvoso no Brasil pode reduzir as exportações em até 30% em fevereiro, segundo relatório da Steel Index (TSI), índice que é referência nos preços do produto. "Acrescente a esta forte demanda chinesa e o cenário para os preços é extremamente altista", disse a TSI. Outro índice para o minério de ferro com grau de pureza 62%, o Platts, saltou mais de 3%, para US$ 182,50 por tonelada, base custo e frete, na sexta-feira. O maior valor desde abril de 2010. O minério indiano, com 63,5% de teor de ferro era cotado entre US$ 185 a US$ 187 por tonelada, também custo e frete, com algumas ofertas chegando a US$ 190 por tonelada, informou ontem a consultoria chinesa Mysteel. “É inacreditável que as ofertas no spot tenham atingido a máxima de US$ 190 a tonelada”, disse um analista sênior em uma importante fabricante de aço no país. "Por sorte, nós já construímos estoques suficientes para o Ano Novo Lunar", afirmou. O feriado de Ano Novo Lunar chinês - maior consumidor de minério de ferro do mundo - começa no dia 2 de fevereiro. A sustentação do rali nos preços do minério de ferro depende da capacidade dos produtores de aço poderem, repassar o alto custo assim que ele chega, disseram traders. Muitos fabricantes de aço na Ásia elevaram os preços de seus produtos devido ao aumento dos custos da matéria-prima, mas a sul-coreana Posco, terceira maior produtora global, alertou que seria difícil repassar inteiramente estes custos.

The fact is that China seemingly “Midas touch”, everything that touches turns to gold. The phenomenon of high price of iron ore is due to strong demand from Chinese. Repeats the occurred mainly between 2003 and 2008 when China was the destination of virtually the entire steel export, since the country had become a gigantic building site, aimed at including the Beijing Olympics. The price of iron ore to US$ 200.00 (two hundred US dollars) looks like something out of reality. In the past was appellant understanding that from 2008 the country becomes how to become a net exporter of steel; and in relation to iron ore? The Asian country has the largest reserve of crude ore in the world, however, low ferrous tenor! The price of iron ore in the spot market (spot) of China reached yesterday US$ 180.80 ton ante US$ 178.30 on Friday, confirming an uptrend. The end of December, when the quotation of ore on Chinese free market reached US$ 170.1 until yesterday, there was a high of 6.4% of the principal raw material steel. The assessment analyst, nothing prevents the ore reach US$ 200 a ton in ' spot ' in February. If you have a little less offer per part of the world's largest mining company Vale-raw materials-arising from problems of rains in Brazil and demand to continue improving by account of purchases in advance of Chinese power plants due to Chinese New Year celebrations, the uptrend can worsen. Currently, the production of steel returned to recover also in Europe. The price of “spot” is suffering too strong actuation of traders. For an industry expert, the crucial point, even if there is speculation on the free market, is that supply and demand of ore is very tight. Another input, steel, metallurgical coal comes with problems of supply due to floods in Australia. The price of high-quality Chinese coal has increased from US$ 299 per tonne to $ 323. The high reaches 6%. Tight supply and demand have pulled Chinese firm prices for iron ore to the highest level in nearly nine months. Fears of heavy rains in Brazil that may disrupt the exports of the second largest country supplier of iron ore, besides the already tight supply of India, the third in the ranking, while China's steel makers seek to build stocks may lead prices at a level which is not seen. The fall of arm in India between ore producers and large steel helps push up the price even more “spot” ore. As the Indian steel is more powerful than owners of iron ore mines, local production is retained in the country by incurring more supply. “We may see prices rise up to US$ 200 in the next month if break continue”, said Troy Flannery, senior mining analyst DJ Carmichael, Perth. “I believe that we will see a little more volatility in the market spot because of these supply interruptions, while it is likely that some steel manufacturers are trying to anticipate the game to ensure her raw so they can”. Rainy climate in Brazil can reduce exports by up to 30% in February, according to report from Steel Index (TSI), index is a benchmark in product prices. “Add to this strong Chinese demand and scenario for prices is extremely bullish”, said TSI. Another index for iron ore with 62% purity, Platts, jumped more than 3%, to US$ 182.50 per tonne basis, cost and freight on Friday. The highest value since April 2010. Indian, with ore 63.5% iron was quoted anywhere from $ 185 to US$ 187 per tonne, also cost and freight, with some offers reaching $ 190 per tonne, said yesterday the Chinese consultancy Mysteel. “It's unbelievable that the offers on the spot have reached the maximum of $ 190 ton”, said a senior analyst at a major steel manufacturer in the country. “Luckily, we've built enough stocks for the Lunar New year”, he said. The holiday of Chinese Lunar New year-largest consumer of iron ore in the world – begins on February 2. Rally in support of iron ore prices depends on the ability of steel producers to pass the high cost once it arrives, traders said. Many steel manufacturers in Asia have elevated prices of their products due to the increase in raw material costs, but the South Korea's Posco, the third biggest producer overall, warned that it would be difficult to entirely pass these costs.