segunda-feira, 10 de janeiro de 2011

The International Steel Market in 2011–Brazil


The international steel market in 2010, early on showed uptrend then fell because of lower recovery of global economy and international demand for steel. This reflected in the increase in commodity prices that was contained, while the distribution market began timidly to replenish the stocks.


Then came the crises of Egypt, Ireland and Portugal announced that intensified in Europe the low demand for steel, thus the prices began declining gradually. China increased repression of real estate industry, hard hit by the distrust of the market. In this context, in 2011, the performance of the global market for steel will not be very different from 2010.


The current global economic recovery cycle, largely affected by the economy of Europe and the United States is led by emerging economies, especially China and Brazil long after. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economy in 2010 would grow in 4.8% in 2011, will have an increase of 4.2%. Developed countries grew by 2.7% in 2010 and the projection is 2.2% for 2011. Emerging economies grew 7.1% in 2010 and projected growth of 6.4% for 2011. Of course a deceleration of economic growth in 2011.


So it's not hard to predict that there will be growth of steel production in 2011, with the trend of world steel market is stagnating, based on supply, demand, inventory, and costs.


Uncertainty in the global economy coupled with the global demand for steel in 2011 indicates that growth will fall substantially. In fact, this year, Europe and the United States will have a low economic recovery, however, with low retrieval jobs, mainly in the automotive industry.


Then there may be a growth of cost of production, especially if the iron ore, with tight supply, exceed the amount of $ 180.00 (one hundred and eighty dollars) per tonne, which will inhibit further growth of global production of crude steel. There are still considered the pressure by price increase metal scrap. Once again, the growth of metal scrap supply should come mainly from developed countries, because the developed countries are still relatively weak in the industrial sector. Most of the demand for scrap also developed countries, the demand will be a modest growth next year.


In this set, In 2011 the prices of hot-rolled coil should be around $ 500.00 (five hundred dollars); prices of hot-rolled coil should be around $ 580.00 (five hundred and eighty dollars) and specially coated around $ 720.00 (seven hundred and twenty dollars). It is true that there is a growth in the civil construction market, especially in emerging countries, however, this does not justify the price of concrete steel reinforcing bars currently around $ 720.00 (seven hundred and twenty dollars), where excellent award because of the low investment to produce this kind of steel. The tendency is that the price could not sustain there global oversupply.


In Brazil, the association representing Instituto Aço Brasil – IABr (Brazil Steel Institute) has fostered through trade unions as CNTM - for National Confederation of the Hard-working Metallurgists and "Força Sindical" Congressman Paulo Pereira da Silva, a predatory competition between businesses and the Federal States, on grounds of the old problem with VAT. Also, the Office demonstrates tendency to seek protection for the steel market, which could harm the main Brazilian exports, taking the case to the WTO - World Trade Organization.


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